[December 4 SMM Copper Morning meeting minutes] LME copper stocks continue to decline imports maintain a stable discount structure

12. 4 minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting

[12. 4 SMM Bronze Morning meeting minutes] Macro aspect: 1) Trade concerns have rekindled, the dollar has fallen continuously, safe haven currencies have soared, and gold has hit a new high in nearly four weeks. 2) the European Commission said that EU countries will unite to deal with the US plan to impose tariffs on French goods, and believes that recourse to the (WTO) of the World Trade Organization is the best way to resolve such disputes.

Fundamentals: 1) scrap copper: yesterday's fine scrap price difference is 820 yuan / ton. Due to the reduction of imported scrap copper, the supply of scrap copper has shrunk, the source of raw materials for waste enterprises is scarce, some enterprises have reduced production due to lack of raw materials, and some enterprises are only trying to maintain production. On the whole, the shortage of copper scrap has caused the production of downstream waste enterprises to be affected. 2) Import of copper: there was a loss of about 150 yuan / ton on imports yesterday. The atmosphere of the foreign trade market became more and more obvious at the end of the year, and the downturn in market transactions was difficult to improve The holder quotation is still in the downward adjustment, the far month good copper quotation has also been as low as 65-68 US dollars / ton, it is still difficult to close the deal, the market maintains the light pattern is difficult to change. 3) inventories: LME copper stocks were reduced by 2275 tons to 206250 tons on December 3, while copper stocks in the previous period were reduced by 270 tons to 64603 tons. 4) spot: on the spot side, due to the sharp drop in the disk price, it is expected that the mood of receiving goods in the market below the 47000 level will improve, and the holder will be raised for reasons. It is expected that the spot rise will rise today. Spot water is expected to rise by 120 yuan to 150 yuan per ton today. Copper prices and forecasts: last night, the center of gravity of the internal and external market moved down as a whole, mainly due to renewed disturbances in the trade situation. Trump once again made it clear that he was in no hurry to resolve global trade disputes and that he was in no hurry to resolve global trade disputes. Copper prices have fallen after hearing the use of tariff weapons in Europe, South America, China and other places. At present, trade disputes have once again become the key driver of the trend of copper prices. The globalization of trade disputes is not conducive to economic recovery in Europe and other countries, and market risk aversion has also warmed up. CMX gold prices rose 1.04 per cent a day and returned to a high of US $1487 / oz, putting pressure on copper to move higher. At the same time, OPEC production reduction strategy has been unclear, but also caused the market to worry about demand, Russian oil production has also been higher than the agreement target, the overall higher oil prices will form a crackdown expectations, the United States crude oil is still hovering at 55 low, copper prices affected by linkage is also difficult to have a good performance. At present, Shanghai copper close Yin, the bottom has lost all the moving average support, KDJ bearish expansion, copper prices are expected to continue to maintain low volatility today. Today, Shanghai copper is expected to be 4680047200 yuan / ton, Lun copper 58005840 US dollars / ton.